Dubai’s property market has entered a new phase in 2026 — one defined less by rapid across-the-board growth and more by selectivity. For Rui Liu, Founder and Chairman of LEOS Developments, that shift is not a warning sign. It is the market finally rewarding the discipline LEOS was built around.
A Market Becoming More Selective
The data supports Rui’s reading. Dubai recorded its strongest first quarter on record in early 2026, with total real estate transactions reaching AED 252 billion — a 31% year-on-year increase in value. But the second quarter told a more nuanced story: transaction volumes eased 31% year-on-year, driven almost entirely by the secondary market, while off-plan activity — the segment LEOS operates in — eased only 12% and grew to represent 76% of total market activity.
“The market is not losing momentum,” is the reading Rui has offered in industry commentary. “It is becoming more selective about who it trusts with off-plan capital.” That selectivity, in his view, is healthy — it rewards developers with genuine delivery track records over those competing purely on launch pricing.
Off-Plan's Continued Dominance
Off-plan property now accounts for the overwhelming majority of Dubai transactions — a structural shift Rui sees as validating the regulatory framework Dubai has built around escrow protection and milestone-linked construction funding. Buyer confidence in off-plan, he has argued, is no longer blind optimism; it is confidence earned by a regulatory system — RERA-mandated escrow accounts, Oqood registration, milestone-verified fund release — that has matured alongside the market itself.
Where the Growth Is Concentrated
Rui’s view of where Dubai’s growth is genuinely concentrated aligns closely with LEOS’s own portfolio positioning. Dubai Sports City, Dubailand, and Meydan District 11 all feature among the strongest-performing corridors in 2026 transaction data — communities defined by a combination of accessible entry pricing, real infrastructure investment, and increasingly mature lifestyle amenities that no longer require buyers to trade convenience for value.
Meydan District 11 in particular stands out in Rui’s assessment, for a structural reason rather than a cyclical one: low-density planning discipline that constrains new supply, combined with a confirmed Metro Blue Line that will materially improve connectivity to Downtown Dubai by 2029. Analysts project 15–18% near-term capital appreciation in the district as that infrastructure approaches delivery — a dynamic Rui has pointed to as the clearest example of infrastructure-led value creation currently visible in the market.
The Golden Visa Effect
Rui has also highlighted the February 2026 rule change to the UAE Golden Visa property route — which removed the requirement to have paid 50% of a property’s value before applying — as one of the most consequential policy shifts for real estate investors in recent years. By opening the 10-year residency route to the majority of off-plan and mortgaged buyers for the first time, the change has widened Dubai’s investor base meaningfully, with investor residency applications rising 34.7% year-on-year in the first quarter following the change.
Discipline as the Differentiator
Asked what the next phase of Dubai’s market will reward, Rui’s answer returns consistently to the same theme: developer discipline. As new project launches slowed sharply through 2026 — down more than 55% year-on-year by unit count in the first quarter — buyers gained more time to conduct due diligence rather than racing to secure allocation in a hot launch. That shift favours developers with consistent inspection standards, self-funded balance sheets, and a track record of delivering what was promised.
For LEOS, operating across Dubai Sports City, Dubailand and Meydan with a fully RERA-registered, escrow-protected portfolio, that is precisely the environment Rui has spent over a decade building the company to compete in.
