Dubai’s property market moved through a genuine inflection point in 2026 — a record first quarter followed by a more selective second quarter. For Jake Jacobs, CEO of LEOS Developments, that shift reflects a market maturing in exactly the direction the regulatory framework was designed to encourage.
Reading the 2026 Data
Dubai recorded its strongest first quarter on record in early 2026, with total transactions reaching AED 252 billion a 31% year-on-year increase in value. The second quarter told a different story: transaction volumes eased 31% year-on-year, but that decline was concentrated almost entirely in the secondary market, down 59% year-on-year, while off-plan activity — the segment LEOS operates in — eased only 12% and grew to represent 76% of total market activity.
Jake’s operational reading of that data centres on what it signals about buyer behaviour: capital is increasingly concentrating around developers with genuine delivery track records, rather than spreading evenly across the market. New project launches fell more than 55% year-on-year by unit count in the same period — a supply pullback Jake views as developers pausing to let absorption catch up with an already substantial pipeline, rather than a signal of weakening confidence.
Off-Plan's Regulatory Maturity
A central part of Jake’s outlook rests on how far Dubai’s off-plan regulatory framework has matured. Mandatory escrow accounts, milestone-linked fund releases verified by independent engineers, and Oqood registration for every off-plan contract have transformed off-plan buying from a leap of faith into a structurally protected transaction — protection that applies equally to a first-time overseas buyer and an institutional fund.
That maturity, in Jake’s assessment, is precisely why off-plan has grown to represent the overwhelming majority of Dubai transactions even through a quarter of broader market cooling. Buyers are not simply chasing lower entry prices — they are placing increasing trust in a regulatory system that has proven itself capable of protecting their capital.
Where Jake Sees Opportunity Concentrated
Jake’s operational view of where growth is genuinely concentrated aligns closely with LEOS’s own portfolio positioning across Dubai Sports City, Dubailand, and Meydan District 11 communities combining accessible entry pricing with confirmed infrastructure investment. Meydan District 11 stands out specifically for its low-density planning discipline, a structural constraint on future supply that Jake has pointed to as a genuine differentiator against communities where oversupply risk remains a live concern.
The February 2026 Golden Visa rule change — removing the requirement to have paid 50% of a property’s value before applying — is another development Jake has highlighted as materially widening Dubai’s investor base, with the property route now accessible to the majority of off-plan and mortgaged buyers for the first time.
What the Market Will Reward Next
Asked what will define success in Dubai’s property market through the remainder of 2026, Jake’s answer centres on operational discipline rather than market timing: developers with self-funded balance sheets, consistent construction quality control, and full regulatory compliance are best positioned to convert a more selective market into a competitive advantage, while developers relying on sales velocity alone will find that advantage increasingly difficult to sustain.
That is the environment Jake has spent his tenure at LEOS building the company to operate in — one where delivery discipline, not launch pricing alone, determines which developments earn buyer trust.
